Could Global Warming Impact Apple Yields?
Submitted by Editor on Fri, 02/05/2010 - 2:35pm.
Chris Torres
Staff Writer
HERSHEY, Pa. — Dr. James Shortle of Penn State had an interesting challenge at the Mid-Atlantic Fruit and Vegetable Convention Tuesday: trying to change growers’ attitudes about possible climate change in the future.
Judging from the reaction he got from producers when he asked how many believed climate change was real, he knew he had a challenge. Only a handful of people out of dozens raised their hands.
For him, the objective wasn’t just about changing peoples’ minds about climate change, it was about presenting information that producers could use to make a decision for themselves. It is interesting to note that Shortle was at one time a skeptic about climate change until he saw evidence that convinced him.
“I know there is a lot of skepticism out there. I just ask you to consider the issue,” he said.
Much of the information he presented came from a study that was commissioned by the Pennsylvania Legislature. The legislature passed an act in 2007 to study climate change and what impact it will have on Pennsylvania’s future.
Shortle, an ag economist by trade, said he understands a lot of the reasons why climate change has attracted skepticism. The science behind the initial models of climate change, developed in the 1990s, were “awful,” he said, adding that the models failed to accurately project precipitation and temperature trends of the past in order to make proper forecasts for the future.
That has changed, he said, with better technology and lessons learned.
About 21 climate change models, he said, have been developed around the world to make predictions about future temperature and precipitation trends.
All the climate change models state that, for the most part, Pennsylvania will be warmer, causing various impacts for agriculture.
Future generations, he said, will see the most impact.
“By 2100, what we do today will matter quite a bit,” he said.
In Pennsylvania, summers will be impacted more than winters, with warmer temperatures and more precipitation.
Soil runoff, as a result, could be a concern.
There will also be longer dry periods, longer growing seasons, and fewer frost days, which Shortle thinks could create soil moisture problems.
Row crops like corn and soybeans could see increased yields. However, cool-adapted crops, like apples and veggies, could see decreased yields. Wine grape varieties in the U.S. could also see a decline, but European varieties could see increased yields.
“You all know that your economic condition on your farm doesn’t just depend on your productivity,” Shortle said, highlighting the fact that global warming could have a profound impact.
Areas south of Pennsylvania, he said, could see even warmer temperatures, causing heat stress in animals. Poultry and hog operations may, as a result, move further north.
And while warmer temperatures will lead to increased production in other states and regions, it could actually result in lower prices overall.
“I don’t know what’s going to happen. But when you look at this, you have to think about a lot of factors and potential impacts,” he said.
Chris Torres
Staff Writer
HERSHEY, Pa. — Dr. James Shortle of Penn State had an interesting challenge at the Mid-Atlantic Fruit and Vegetable Convention Tuesday: trying to change growers’ attitudes about possible climate change in the future.
Judging from the reaction he got from producers when he asked how many believed climate change was real, he knew he had a challenge. Only a handful of people out of dozens raised their hands.
For him, the objective wasn’t just about changing peoples’ minds about climate change, it was about presenting information that producers could use to make a decision for themselves. It is interesting to note that Shortle was at one time a skeptic about climate change until he saw evidence that convinced him.
“I know there is a lot of skepticism out there. I just ask you to consider the issue,” he said.
Much of the information he presented came from a study that was commissioned by the Pennsylvania Legislature. The legislature passed an act in 2007 to study climate change and what impact it will have on Pennsylvania’s future.
Shortle, an ag economist by trade, said he understands a lot of the reasons why climate change has attracted skepticism. The science behind the initial models of climate change, developed in the 1990s, were “awful,” he said, adding that the models failed to accurately project precipitation and temperature trends of the past in order to make proper forecasts for the future.
That has changed, he said, with better technology and lessons learned.
About 21 climate change models, he said, have been developed around the world to make predictions about future temperature and precipitation trends.
All the climate change models state that, for the most part, Pennsylvania will be warmer, causing various impacts for agriculture.
Future generations, he said, will see the most impact.
“By 2100, what we do today will matter quite a bit,” he said.
In Pennsylvania, summers will be impacted more than winters, with warmer temperatures and more precipitation.
Soil runoff, as a result, could be a concern.
There will also be longer dry periods, longer growing seasons, and fewer frost days, which Shortle thinks could create soil moisture problems.
Row crops like corn and soybeans could see increased yields. However, cool-adapted crops, like apples and veggies, could see decreased yields. Wine grape varieties in the U.S. could also see a decline, but European varieties could see increased yields.
“You all know that your economic condition on your farm doesn’t just depend on your productivity,” Shortle said, highlighting the fact that global warming could have a profound impact.
Areas south of Pennsylvania, he said, could see even warmer temperatures, causing heat stress in animals. Poultry and hog operations may, as a result, move further north.
And while warmer temperatures will lead to increased production in other states and regions, it could actually result in lower prices overall.
“I don’t know what’s going to happen. But when you look at this, you have to think about a lot of factors and potential impacts,” he said.
